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Stat, Viz, Quiz is the Opta Analyst football newsletter. This week’s edition examines the Champions League, the FA Cup, and Barcelona.
Knockout football; it’s thrilling.
The reason cup competitions captivate the audience is the high stakes involved, knowing that a single poor performance can end an entire season’s journey. This was the case for several prominent teams in the FA Cup over the weekend, with Liverpool, Chelsea, and Tottenham all crashing out in the fourth round. We explore who’s left in the running to lift the famous trophy in May.
We will also witness the elimination of a heavyweight from the UEFA Champions League in the next two weeks, as Real Madrid and Manchester City meet in the knockout play-off stage. What implications does the draw have for the overall Champions League predictions? We’ll consult the Opta supercomputer.
There is also an Ask Opta question about Barcelona’s goal-scoring prowess, while this week’s quiz will test your FA Cup knowledge.
Let’s start by examining the Champions League anthem and the decisive knockout play-off round for some renowned clubs.
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STAT – Champions League Predictions
Change is often challenging, and the response to the new Champions League format appears to have been largely positive, especially with the final matchday of the league phase presenting numerous possibilities across the 18 simultaneous games.
While the ultimate outcome was that none of the larger names in the competition were eliminated, it didn’t mean there was no jeopardy.
Powerhouses such as Bayern Munich, Real Madrid, Manchester City, and Paris Saint-Germain were forced to settle for a play-off spot, meaning they have two additional games before they can look ahead to the last 16. In the case of Madrid and City, one of them will not progress any further.
Reigning European champions Madrid and pre-tournament favorites City will face each other in the competition for a fourth consecutive campaign. This is only the fourth fixture in European Cup/Champions League history to be played in four successive seasons, following Deportivo de La Coruña vs Juventus, Chelsea vs Liverpool, and Atlético Madrid vs Real Madrid.
The knock-on effect is that neither team are among the frontrunners with the Opta supercomputer to win the Champions League this season. Despite the overwhelming sense of inevitability that always seems to come with Real Madrid playing in this competition, Carlo Ancelotti’s men only win the crown in 4.4% of the supercomputer’s 10,000 simulations, making them sixth favorites.
A difficult play-off opponent coupled with a general malaise this season means City are also far from fancied, only winning their second Champions League in 3.4% of sims (9th favorites).
Of course, whoever emerges victorious from their tie will see their chances rise significantly, but likely not enough to become favorites.
That tag belongs to Liverpool. Arne Slot’s men may have been defeated by lowly Plymouth Argyle in the FA Cup on Sunday, but the Premier League leaders’ first-place finish in the Champions League group stage sees them still considered the likeliest team to lift the trophy in the Allianz Arena as things stand. They do so in almost a quarter of simulations (23.9%).
A potential obstacle, however, is that Liverpool could face PSG in the last 16. If Luis Enrique’s side get past Brest in the play-offs, they will encounter either Liverpool or Barcelona in the next round, and PSG are fifth favorites to win the whole thing (5.6%) after a strong finish in the league phase.
Arsenal, who have never won the European Cup/Champions League before, only reaching one final (2006), are second favorites with the supercomputer, winning it in 16.4% of sims. No-one will relish facing the Premier League leaders in the knockout stages.
That’s ahead of Serie A champions Inter (15.0%) and Barcelona (10.1%), with the latter only narrowly missing out on topping the 36-team table after drawing with Atalanta on Matchday 8.
Bayern Munich perhaps harshly only win the trophy in their own stadium in May in 2.5% of sims, and need to overcome Celtic in the play-offs. Meanwhile, Aston Villa only repeat their 1982 success in the competition in 1.3% of sims, despite already sealing their place in the last 16 and appearing to have a relatively favorable route to the latter stages.
Keep an eye on the Opta Analyst site for updated predictor numbers as the season progresses.
VIZ – The Magic of the FA Cup
If you’re of a certain age, you might still believe in the magic of the FA Cup. Your childhood memories may have been filled with watching classic games, iconic moments, giant-killings galore, and trophy lifts that could inspire even the most cynical.
For most, those fond memories are almost exclusively from several years – if not decades – ago. Was the magic ever really there in the first place or did we imagine it? Were we just more impressionable in our younger years? We all love Father Christmas and the Tooth Fairy as well, but what if our parents tell us tomorrow that Ronnie Radford never really existed?
However, this weekend may have rekindled your childlike wonder, unless you happen to be a Liverpool fan.
Plymouth’s shock 1-0 victory over an admittedly much-changed Liverpool was one of the biggest upsets in recent FA Cup history, with Ryan Hardie’s penalty enough to end the Reds’ hopes of a quadruple.
It was the latest case of a big name being eliminated from this season’s competition, with Arsenal going out in the third round, joined through the exit door by Liverpool, Chelsea, and Tottenham in round four. That leaves only the two Manchester clubs of the traditional ‘big six’ remaining in the last 16 of the FA Cup.
Unless we get Manchester United vs Manchester City for a third successive season in the FA Cup final, we could be on course for a fresher victor.
Looking at the Opta Power Ratings (which fuel the Opta Power Rankings), we have quite a spread of teams remaining. Man City are the highest-rated team still in the cup (96.5 – 7th in the Global Rankings), ahead of Newcastle United (93.1 – 15th in the Global Rankings).
Bournemouth are third (91.9 – 18th) ahead of Nottingham Forest (91.2 – 21st) and Aston Villa (90.9 – 22nd).
Exeter City host Forest in the final game of the fourth round on Tuesday, and if the Grecians make it through, they would comfortably be the lowest-ranked team left in the FA Cup (69.1 rating – ranked 1,190th in the world), though Plymouth – who will travel to Man City in the fifth round – will be the lowest ranked if Forest advance. Miron Muslic’s side have a rating of 74.8 and are ranked 525th globally.
It would be nice to see a new name win the FA Cup. Since Wimbledon surprisingly won in 1988, there have only been four instances of a non-big six team (Man Utd, Man City, Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, and Tottenham) lifting it: Everton in 1995, Portsmouth in 2008, Wigan Athletic in 2013, and Leicester City in 2021, while Spurs have only won it once in that time (1991).
That means that between them, five teams have accounted for 31 of the last 36 FA Cups. With only two of those teams remaining at the fifth-round stage this season, the door is ajar for someone like Newcastle, Brighton, Nottingham Forest, Aston Villa, Bournemouth, or even Plymouth to etch their name in history.
Well, probably not Plymouth, but then who are we to question real magic?
QUIZ – FA Cup Conundrums
How’s your FA Cup knowledge? Answers at the bottom of the page.
1. While Leicester fans will point to a lack of VAR playing its part at Old Trafford on Friday, Harry Maguire (92:23) was the first Manchester United player to score a winning goal in second half stoppage time in the FA Cup since who did so against Everton in April 2016 (92:04)?
2. Following their 1-0 win at Southampton, how many consecutive clean sheets have Burnley kept in all competitions?
3. Against Birmingham City, William Osula became the first Newcastle player to assist 2+ goals in an FA Cup match since who did so in January 2017, also against Birmingham? Clue: He has also played for Liverpool.
4. Plymouth were the first side from outside of the Premier League to eliminate the team top of the top-flight since who defeated Manchester City in February 2018?
5. Tottenham have gone 1-0 down in the opening minute of a match on two occasions this season (vs Brentford in September and Aston Villa on Sunday), making them one of only two Premier League sides to have done so more than once, along with who?
Ask Opta
This week’s question comes from Lawrence T, who asks: “It seems like Barcelona are scoring 4/5 goals every game. How many have they scored this season and is it the most in Europe?”
Do you have a stats-based football question you want to Ask Opta? If so, send it to [email protected] and we’ll do our best to provide you with the answer in a future edition of SVQ.
Answer:
You’re right, Lawrence. Barcelona are frankly scoring a remarkable number of goals this season.
Hansi Flick’s men scored four more at Sevilla on Sunday, taking them to 113 goals in 36 games in all competitions. That’s at least 19 more than anyone else from Europe’s top five leagues (Real Madrid – 94 in 38 games).
It’s also the most per game, so it isn’t just because they’ve played more than others. Barça (3.14) are the only team from Europe’s top five leagues to be averaging more than three goals scored per game this season, ahead of Bayern Munich (2.91), Real Madrid (2.47), PSG (2.42), and Chelsea (2.42).
The most goals Barcelona have ever scored in a season in all competitions on record (since 1928-29) is 189, which they managed in the 63 games in the 2011-12 campaign. That meant they averaged exactly three goals per game, and though they can only play 61 games at most this season, their current rate would see them end 2024-25 with 191 goals, breaking the record.
It’s a significant challenge considering some of those potential games would be in the latter stages of the Champions League, but never say never.
